England Squad

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Rover the Top
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Re: England Squad

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:18 am

ReallyRelievedRover wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:06 am
This is pretty interesting, not quite sure how accurate it is and certainly have no idea how players are valued anymore. Rashford the 4th most expensive England player at the World Cup. Kane 3rd most valuable of any player? Aguero looks a little cheap compared to some of the other 'world class' 'superstars' having a kickabout in Russia this summer.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/wm-2018 ... ewerb/WM18
Fantasy football make-believe nonsense. Ask yourself how would that website have access to the confidential information required to value each player.

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Re: England Squad

Post by theadore » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:25 am

Can't speak for transfermarkt, but CIES do some pretty good work on this stuff. Having access to confidential information doesn't really come into it... it's all about crunching data, looking at market trends and publicly available basics like contract length.

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Re: England Squad

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:38 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:53 pm
The angle from the left shows the ball hit his chest and only move forwards from that point on; there's an optical illusion on the angle from the front where it appears to roll on his arm, but if you look from the left and the position of his right arm which is held behind his chest, it's impossible for it to have made contact.
You can't see his right arm from the left, the ball and his body block the view. :-? The two camera angles at the front show it hits on the right side of his body/right arm. The one from the side shows the ball is deflected forwards, which means it hit something behind that you can't see ie his arm. If it just hit the right side of his chest without the arm, it would deflect at a more obtuse angle. The only question for me is if it could be an accident.

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Re: England Squad

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:40 am

theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:25 am
Can't speak for transfermarkt, but CIES do some pretty good work on this stuff. Having access to confidential information doesn't really come into it... it's all about crunching data, looking at market trends and publicly available basics like contract length.
How do they measure up to reality?

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Re: England Squad

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:07 am

Anyway, are we all ready to be humbled by Colombia? :hyper:

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Re: England Squad

Post by theadore » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am

Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:40 am
theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:25 am
Can't speak for transfermarkt, but CIES do some pretty good work on this stuff. Having access to confidential information doesn't really come into it... it's all about crunching data, looking at market trends and publicly available basics like contract length.
How do they measure up to reality?
Difficult to say really... they've not been going long and the data isn't freely available. I imagine it will be very difficult for values to match reality, especially at the top end of the market, because the biggest factors are nearly impossible to model. Players falling out with managers, becoming surplus to requirements at their current club etc. Plus when we have incidents like the Naymar transfer that completely skew the rest of the market it will take time for a statistical model to catch up.

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Re: England Squad

Post by theadore » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am

Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:07 am
Anyway, are we all ready to be humbled by Colombia? :hyper:
After trying to avoid the more difficult side of the draw it is almost inevitable surely.

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Re: England Squad

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:40 am

theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am
Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:40 am
theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:25 am
Can't speak for transfermarkt, but CIES do some pretty good work on this stuff. Having access to confidential information doesn't really come into it... it's all about crunching data, looking at market trends and publicly available basics like contract length.
How do they measure up to reality?
Difficult to say really... they've not been going long and the data isn't freely available. I imagine it will be very difficult for values to match reality, especially at the top end of the market, because the biggest factors are nearly impossible to model. Players falling out with managers, becoming surplus to requirements at their current club etc. Plus when we have incidents like the Naymar transfer that completely skew the rest of the market it will take time for a statistical model to catch up.
OK - that's exactly why I said they'd need access to confidential information to be accurate. It just seems a bit of a pointless exercise to me. In reality player transfer values are more fluid than formulaic number crunching.

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Re: England Squad

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:13 pm

theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am
Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:07 am
Anyway, are we all ready to be humbled by Colombia? :hyper:
After trying to avoid the more difficult side of the draw it is almost inevitable surely.
I don't really buy that either side were trying to finish second. Why would Cahill clear off the line? Why would Januzaj score? Why would Rashford bother to run clean through? I think it's just easier to take than admitting that Belgium are man-to-man a much better squad, one of the best in the tournament. They don't need to worry about the draw because they've got the potential to make it through to the final whoever they play. Whereas we talk up our chances because we scored 5 in a half against a poor team that lost their heads. It seems to be taken for granted that we'll beat Colombia and I'm not sure where that comes from.

Still it was worth losing just for Batshuayi's goal celebration. :lol:

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Re: England Squad

Post by mcteeth » Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:20 pm

I mean it isn't surprising in the least but far too much fuss has been made about whether we've intentionally tried to get into this side of the knockout draw etc etc etc. Last night was nothing more than effectively a friendly between largely reserves of each squad. It demonstrated things that were very obvious, Belgium have a better squad than we do but also Southgate should hopefully and learnt even more about how this young team can perform.

We aren't as effective a side without Lingard, Kane and Trippier particularly for his set piece deliveries. Henderson is better than Dier on current form, we should probably look to start Ali and he should be fit for Colombia and also once he settled into the game I thought Rose showed he's a better wingback than Young.

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Re: England Squad

Post by mrblackbat » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:45 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:38 am
mrblackbat wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:53 pm
The angle from the left shows the ball hit his chest and only move forwards from that point on; there's an optical illusion on the angle from the front where it appears to roll on his arm, but if you look from the left and the position of his right arm which is held behind his chest, it's impossible for it to have made contact.
You can't see his right arm from the left, the ball and his body block the view. :-? The two camera angles at the front show it hits on the right side of his body/right arm. The one from the side shows the ball is deflected forwards, which means it hit something behind that you can't see ie his arm. If it just hit the right side of his chest without the arm, it would deflect at a more obtuse angle. The only question for me is if it could be an accident.
You can see his left arm is not alongside his body and is held behind because you can't see it in the shot. And when you compare the two shots side by side, timing the impact of the ball against his chest (which you can see) and then moving forwards. And so you can deduce that it didn't hit his arm at all.

They use the exact same technique in cricket all the time, whereby you can't see the whole picture in a single video, but you can when you look at two. It's called correlation.

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Re: England Squad

Post by Ethiaa » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:55 pm

We need a condescending bastard emoticon.

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theadore
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Re: England Squad

Post by theadore » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:19 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:40 am
theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am
Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:40 am
theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:25 am
Can't speak for transfermarkt, but CIES do some pretty good work on this stuff. Having access to confidential information doesn't really come into it... it's all about crunching data, looking at market trends and publicly available basics like contract length.
How do they measure up to reality?
Difficult to say really... they've not been going long and the data isn't freely available. I imagine it will be very difficult for values to match reality, especially at the top end of the market, because the biggest factors are nearly impossible to model. Players falling out with managers, becoming surplus to requirements at their current club etc. Plus when we have incidents like the Naymar transfer that completely skew the rest of the market it will take time for a statistical model to catch up.
OK - that's exactly why I said they'd need access to confidential information to be accurate. It just seems a bit of a pointless exercise to me. In reality player transfer values are more fluid than formulaic number crunching.
Depends on your end goal... You can still conduct interesting analysis but accept the limitations of things you can't cater for... Or indeed try to create predictive models which react very in future to anomalous events. Having access to all the data is nice but ultimately doesn't happen in the real world.

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Re: England Squad

Post by theadore » Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:23 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:13 pm
theadore wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:18 am
Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:07 am
Anyway, are we all ready to be humbled by Colombia? :hyper:
After trying to avoid the more difficult side of the draw it is almost inevitable surely.
I don't really buy that either side were trying to finish second. Why would Cahill clear off the line? Why would Januzaj score? Why would Rashford bother to run clean through? I think it's just easier to take than admitting that Belgium are man-to-man a much better squad, one of the best in the tournament. They don't need to worry about the draw because they've got the potential to make it through to the final whoever they play. Whereas we talk up our chances because we scored 5 in a half against a poor team that lost their heads. It seems to be taken for granted that we'll beat Colombia and I'm not sure where that comes from.

Still it was worth losing just for Batshuayi's goal celebration. :lol:
Not trying to lose, but bit trying to win either... Southgate was asked point blank that he would have brought Kane on if he was serious about winning.. he said "yeah, I suppose so".

Ultimately I agree... This team, pre tournament, we would have thought quarters was a reasonable performance... So I'm not sure why or fans are suddenly studying semi final permutations... When it started looking like Japan England should have been chasing the easiest route to the next round in my opinion.

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Re: England Squad

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:01 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:45 pm

They use the exact same technique in cricket all the time, whereby you can't see the whole picture in a single video, but you can when you look at two. It's called correlation.
Yeah you should try it... :lol:

Your version defies basic physics. The ball cannot deflect forward coming from his left and striking only the right of his chest, it would bounce away to his right. It has to come off the inside of his right arm at the same time to cause that change in direction. From the side on angle you can't tell where the ball hit, you only know it hits something to change the trajectory so the ball bounces away. From the front you get the explanation for that change of trajectory. It's strange that you've highlighted all the pieces and then concluded that something physically impossible has happened whilst dismissing the reality as an optical illusion. :shrug: However...

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