Brexit....or in.

There must be more to life than football?

Which way would you vote

Remain and voted remain the first time
6
67%
Leave and voted leave the first time
2
22%
Remain but voted leave the first time
0
No votes
Leave but voted remain the first time
1
11%
Can't be arsed
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 9

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mrblackbat
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Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:16 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46451970

I'm amazed anyone is even surprised that the advice said this could lead to an indefinite link with the EU. Seems obvious to me that it would simply be a way to hold the UK hostage in the customs unions without having any say so.

Anyway, I stand by the idea we should leave with no deal and turn the UK into a major tax haven for corporations. Rake in the additional tax (albeit at a smaller percentage) and have the power to enforce our terms on the rest of the world should they wish to bank here. So you want punitive trade deals EU? Fine, Deutsche Bank can pay twice the transaction fee of everyone else. :twisted:

As an aside, should there be a new referendum, I'm still having a very difficult decision over which way I'd actually vote. Remain first time around, but possibly leave this time purely on principle: you can't just keep having a fresh vote because you didn't like the outcome first time around.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Ethiaa » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:39 pm

We have a fresh vote for our government on a regular basis :shrug:

Democracy doesn't freeze a decision in aspic. Almost like shit changes over time. I see no issue with having a vote now we have some more clarity on what is realistic and what was nonsense. I don't see why anyone would object if democracy is something they believe in - if people want to leave then leave will win again, be that with this backstop or none. You couldn't suggest it was uninformed after 2 years of hearing about nothing else.

Makes you wonder if there is some other agenda driving people.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:29 pm

There are always other agendas driving people.

I think the thing I object to is the assumption from most of my social circle that the people who voted to leave were uninformed and that's why they voted that way. It's not necessarily true. And yes, people will be more informed on what's possible now, but then what's the point in having the first vote at all if you aren't going to honour it?

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:43 am

I'd agree with Eth if it wasn't for the fact we waited 25 years to have the chance to say we didn't want to join the EU in the first place. For those who wanted to leave things as they are to now suggest we need another vote so soon shows they're more interested in having their own way than democracy. It's obvious those campaigning for a second referendum are hoping to split the leave vote between two options so that they can then say remaining won. We've had two years of people trying to muddy the waters and make out a very simple question was far more complex than anyone can understand. Did we want to keep the bad parts of being in the EU, or did we want to lose the good bits? We voted to lose the good bits, and the negotiations should have been about putting things in place so that the UK and the EU could move on smoothly from that. Instead, for some reason we've carried on subserviently following their rules and our useless PM has taken the approach that she wants to stay even in a worse position so she'll try to create an illusion of leaving and hope no one notices. The biggest problem we have is we're still relying on politicians to break us free from what they actually strive for.

I'm kinda sick of the presumptions people make. We're no clearer on what will happen if and when we leave the EU - all we've found out is that our government and parliament have no idea what to do and the EU leaders want to make leaving as unappealing as possible (which is strange given they're supposed to be so great and we're making a big mistake, etc, etc). What's never mentioned is we're no clearer on what would happen should we stay in the EU either. It's taken as a constant, which is just plain deluded given how much it's evolved already. The economic arguments are largely worthless, because they've all become politically motivated. Way back when I used to debate the pros and cons of a trade bloc in A-level economics classes and whilst a majority may swing one way or another it was never conclusive. Yet now we have biased predictions that are presented as being factual, even when the sources have repeatedly been shown to be unreliable. I'd make special note of, Mark Carney's behaviour has been embarassing because he's published forecasts he will know will be in his power to prevent. It's interesting that his predecessor has been critical of him over the last week. Any claim that the EU provides stability ignores pretty much the history of the EU to date. I know immigration was a major issue for some - for me it's irrelevant other than I don't see why (predominantly white) Europeans should get preferential treatment over the rest of the world. I don't think it's a good thing to have central governance over a wide area with contrasting needs, I think localised issues get overlooked.

I can respect people have their own individual reasons for wanting to be part of it. I can respect people saying they don't want to change. I have no problem with people fighting to get their way. But it's a two-way thing. And the way some remainers have shown complete contempt for the leave voters only hardens my resolve. Nothing that's happened since the referendum has swayed me, and I think if there was a second vote, then a renewed Leave campaign would be stronger with the added claim that 17m people were having their opinion dismissed.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Ethiaa » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:38 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:29 pm
There are always other agendas driving people.

I think the thing I object to is the assumption from most of my social circle that the people who voted to leave were uninformed and that's why they voted that way. It's not necessarily true. And yes, people will be more informed on what's possible now, but then what's the point in having the first vote at all if you aren't going to honour it?
I don't see how a vote on the outcome of 2 years of negotiations changes anything or implies you aren't 'honouring' something. We've spent 2 years, a few hundred billion quid, £2,500 per person in lost income, and the loss of focus on all the things that are falling apart because of the shit mess the Govt is making of running the country in the meantime. People seem to assume that a vote on the options now will result in a remain vote but who can say? It's just a democratic decision to do what the country now wants having had that pain which is what they wanted then.

As I said time back, it should never have been a public vote anyway, moronic politicians. The Tory party decided they wanted to make decisions for the whole country based on small margins in public votes - you can't easily put that genie back in the bottle now.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Jim » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:44 am

I’d argue a good amount of those 17m people voted leave on the back of the circa £350m extra funding for the NHS a week that was proven pretty quickly after the referendum to be a complete lie.

The NHS is rightfully beloved by the British people, they aren’t stupid, they know it’s stretched to capacity and underfunded, those friends of mine who work in the NHS have already seen services farmed out to private healthcare organisations. The press does its best to not report this but it’s on its knees.

Dangling that bit a carrot in front of a population was going to win votes and lots of them.

Plus there’s also a statistic that if everyone who voted leave, votes leave again and vice versa for remain. Remain would likely win purely because of the amount of leave voters dying and young voters taking their place (who were too young to vote before provided they vote along the same lines as their peers did in 2016 in their age group).

I think that 2016 opened a Pandora’s box that will take a generation to repair. It brought out the nasty, xenophobic undercurrent in a lot of working class, particuarly northern, towns out into the open. Cretins like Tommy Robinson are still fanning those flames to further their own, twisted agendas. I genuinely worry for my generation and eventually my children’s generation.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm

Jim wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:44 am
I’d argue a good amount of those 17m people voted leave on the back of the circa £350m extra funding for the NHS a week that was proven pretty quickly after the referendum to be a complete lie.
And a good number of the 16m who voted to stay were probably influenced by the deceitful claims from the likes of Osborne and Carney that voting to leave would send the country into an immediate recession, which of course never happened.

You can quibble over the figures, but we are a net contributor to the EU. Hence by leaving, the balance is potentially freed up to invest in services like the NHS. That's why the bus became such a strong message - anyone arguing with the amount ended up reinforcing the underlying point. So not a "complete" lie, just being generous with the truth. Both sides did it, they were fronted by politicians so it would be foolish to expect anything else really.
Jim wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:44 am
Plus there’s also a statistic that if everyone who voted leave, votes leave again and vice versa for remain. Remain would likely win purely because of the amount of leave voters dying and young voters taking their place (who were too young to vote before provided they vote along the same lines as their peers did in 2016 in their age group).
But that's based on the flawed assumption that people don't change their opinions as they get older. Given the shift in attitude from those who voted for us to join the EEC back in the 70s, it's easy to see the problem with such analysis. Generally, the younger generations who've not known anything else voted to keep things as they are. Those who remember life before the EU chose to go back to it. It used to be that people were respected for the wisdom they'd gained with age. Perhaps the youth should ask why their grandparents changed their mind on Europe and learn from it.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Gibbon » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:37 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm
And a good number of the 16m who voted to stay were probably influenced by the deceitful claims from the likes of Osborne and Carney that voting to leave would send the country into an immediate recession, which of course never happened.
Wasn’t the argument not that voting to leave, but actually leaving would throw us into an immediate recession? Looks a good bet still.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Ethiaa » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:33 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm
You can quibble over the figures, but we are a net contributor to the EU.
As we should be. We're fecking rich. Charity does not start at home.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:44 pm

Gibbon wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:37 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm
And a good number of the 16m who voted to stay were probably influenced by the deceitful claims from the likes of Osborne and Carney that voting to leave would send the country into an immediate recession, which of course never happened.
Wasn’t the argument, not that voting to leave, but actually leaving would throw us into an immediate recession?
No. They claimed the "shock" of a vote to leave would cause a recession.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eu_web.pdf

To save you trawling through:
1.2
This document looks at the immediate effect from the point of a decision to two years later, as this is the period in which to negotiate a withdrawal agreement to leave the EU as set out in the Treaties.

Also
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36277336

And don't forget, these weren't just independent predictions. These were made by men who had key positions in managing our economy and had the tools to avoid what they were forecasting. I heard someone say on the radio about Carney's latest doom mongering - one detrimental factor in his forecast was interest rates of 5.5%, but since the B of E set the rate they'd avoid the problem by simply not raising them. We could have a recession, but then we could if we stay in the EU, it's not like it protects economies from getting in dire straits. The fact we can foresee issues from leaving should mean we can mitigate them.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:50 pm

Ethiaa wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:33 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm
You can quibble over the figures, but we are a net contributor to the EU.
As we should be. We're fecking rich. Charity does not start at home.
I'll remember to mention that next time we're talking about a lack of funding for our police, schools, NHS, etc.
But why are we putting it into other relatively wealthy countries in the EU, not the poor countries further afield? Sorry, as with the immigration rules there is no moral argument here.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Ethiaa » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:57 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:50 pm
Ethiaa wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:33 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm
You can quibble over the figures, but we are a net contributor to the EU.
As we should be. We're fecking rich. Charity does not start at home.
I'll remember to mention that next time we're talking about a lack of funding for our police, schools, NHS, etc.
But why are we putting it into other relatively wealthy countries in the EU, not the poor countries further afield? Sorry, as with the immigration rules there is no moral argument here.
Lack of money for services is a direct result of the lack of a progressive taxation system. Hello Tory party.

And of course there is a moral argument here. Not all European countries have anything like our standard of living. A glance at the funding split would tell you that the way the contributions work is based on ability to contribute to the good of all. I have literally negative time for people who think we shouldn't engage in growth as a human race and just focus on the UK.

Image

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:15 pm

Ethiaa wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:57 pm
I have literally negative time for people who think we shouldn't engage in growth as a human race and just focus on the UK.

And I have literally negative time for people who just focus on the EU and forget the human race is found over the whole world. :doh:

Spot the EU members!

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Gibbon » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:08 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:44 pm
Gibbon wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:37 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm
And a good number of the 16m who voted to stay were probably influenced by the deceitful claims from the likes of Osborne and Carney that voting to leave would send the country into an immediate recession, which of course never happened.
Wasn’t the argument, not that voting to leave, but actually leaving would throw us into an immediate recession?
No. They claimed the "shock" of a vote to leave would cause a recession.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eu_web.pdf

To save you trawling through:
1.2
This document looks at the immediate effect from the point of a decision to two years later, as this is the period in which to negotiate a withdrawal agreement to leave the EU as set out in the Treaties.

Also
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36277336

And don't forget, these weren't just independent predictions. These were made by men who had key positions in managing our economy and had the tools to avoid what they were forecasting. I heard someone say on the radio about Carney's latest doom mongering - one detrimental factor in his forecast was interest rates of 5.5%, but since the B of E set the rate they'd avoid the problem by simply not raising them. We could have a recession, but then we could if we stay in the EU, it's not like it protects economies from getting in dire straits. The fact we can foresee issues from leaving should mean we can mitigate them.
Thanks for ‘saving me the bother of trawling through’. I had a quick look anyway and could only see a lot of statements about how a leave result in the referendum would cause uncertainty across the business world, resulting in a possible reduction in uptake of contracts. It seemed a pretty fair prediction based on what has actually happened?

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:31 pm

Gibbon wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:08 pm

Thanks for ‘saving me the bother of trawling through’. I had a quick look anyway and could only see a lot of statements about how a leave result in the referendum would cause uncertainty across the business world, resulting in a possible reduction in uptake of contracts. It seemed a pretty fair prediction based on what has actually happened?
Er, you're joking right?

They say GDP would be between 3.6% and 6% lower with unemployment rising by 500k-800k. In fact GDP has tracked close to what was expected with a remain vote and unemployment has fallen to record levels. Real wages were ahead of inflation last I checked and I don't recall any mention of a slump in house prices. It's a terrible prediction, but then it was published for political reasons rather than because there was any merit to it. And it did it's job in that respect, there are people who are utterly convinced we're in a worse position now despite what the actual indicators show.

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