Brexit....or in.

There must be more to life than football?

Which way would you vote

Remain and voted remain the first time
7
70%
Leave and voted leave the first time
2
20%
Remain but voted leave the first time
0
No votes
Leave but voted remain the first time
1
10%
Can't be arsed
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 10

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mrblackbat
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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:10 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:33 am
mrblackbat wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:28 pm

They're all normal changes to the economy that occur regardless of leaving a customs union though. Inflation rises and falls, interest rates are adjusted. But there's been no actual change to the way in which we do business yet.
So what, we're going to get a whole new range of economic indicators when we leave? Those "normal" changes are exactly what will be affected by exiting the EU. How they'll move and what the net effect will be is an unknown. Which makes it easy for anyone wanting to predict a bad outcome to make a model where everything is set to go to shit and then say we shouldn't leave. But there's certainly an element of "cry wolf" about it. There's more likely to be some counterbalancing reaction from market forces, the B of E or the Treasury that'll make it all feel like the Millenium Bug hysteria all over again to the average citizen. As you say, it all happens regardless of leaving a customs union.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying by normal changes: the market reaction, interest and inflation were all within fairly normal fluctuations, because there hasn't been any actual change to the way in which our country does business.

However, if there is a no trade deal exit from the EU, a whole bunch of stuff actually changes. There are a number of overseas companies I know of who have plans to leave the UK in such a scenario. There are issues with exactly how goods can even be imported or exported from this country as the infrastructure isn't set up. There are also issues with transactions from the UK to the EU as some current systems will no longer be available in such a scenario.

If you can't see that the actual implementation of withdrawal from the EU is when we'll see the real effects on the economy is, then I think you're a bit misguided. Up til then it's pure speculation. The gamble is that we'll more than make up for it by negotiating better trade deals elsewhere, but seeing as we can't do that til we've left, they take time, then a hit in at least the short term seems inevitable.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:54 pm

Intereting yougov poll results on Brexit and current election support. https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ougov-poll

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Gibbon » Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:03 pm

Yep.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:40 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:10 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:33 am
mrblackbat wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:28 pm

They're all normal changes to the economy that occur regardless of leaving a customs union though. Inflation rises and falls, interest rates are adjusted. But there's been no actual change to the way in which we do business yet.
So what, we're going to get a whole new range of economic indicators when we leave? Those "normal" changes are exactly what will be affected by exiting the EU. How they'll move and what the net effect will be is an unknown. Which makes it easy for anyone wanting to predict a bad outcome to make a model where everything is set to go to shit and then say we shouldn't leave. But there's certainly an element of "cry wolf" about it. There's more likely to be some counterbalancing reaction from market forces, the B of E or the Treasury that'll make it all feel like the Millenium Bug hysteria all over again to the average citizen. As you say, it all happens regardless of leaving a customs union.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying by normal changes: the market reaction, interest and inflation were all within fairly normal fluctuations, because there hasn't been any actual change to the way in which our country does business.

However, if there is a no trade deal exit from the EU, a whole bunch of stuff actually changes. There are a number of overseas companies I know of who have plans to leave the UK in such a scenario. There are issues with exactly how goods can even be imported or exported from this country as the infrastructure isn't set up. There are also issues with transactions from the UK to the EU as some current systems will no longer be available in such a scenario.

If you can't see that the actual implementation of withdrawal from the EU is when we'll see the real effects on the economy is, then I think you're a bit misguided. Up til then it's pure speculation. The gamble is that we'll more than make up for it by negotiating better trade deals elsewhere, but seeing as we can't do that til we've left, they take time, then a hit in at least the short term seems inevitable.
But now you're just talking about leaving with no one doing anything to prevent certain foreseeable problems? Your original comment was that upholding the result of the referendum was likely to cause a recession, which is what I was disagreeing with. There's no argument that our government and the EU have gone about negotiations in a totally incompetent manner, and they've kept open this notion that everything will grind to a halt when we reach whichever day in March it is. They're too busy with political posturing to get anything done on a sensible time frame. But neither side can afford to actually let it happen, we'll end up with an eleventh hour agreement to keep things running and we'll all get on with our lives.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:12 am

Upholding the referendum is likely to cause a recession, it always seemed obvious to me that any deal with the EU would likely be a non starter; there are too many opinions and divisons to be able to agree any compromise. I genuinely think the only way that the UK will leave the EU is for them to do so without an agreement and operate under WTO rules.

There's no deal that can be put through that satisfies keeping a soft Irish border to both the mainland and EIRE, taking the UK out of the customs union and curtailing free movement; and that's only looking at the blockers on our side of the negotiation.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:58 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:12 am
Upholding the referendum is likely to cause a recession, it always seemed obvious to me that any deal with the EU would likely be a non starter; there are too many opinions and divisons to be able to agree any compromise. I genuinely think the only way that the UK will leave the EU is for them to do so without an agreement and operate under WTO rules.

There's no deal that can be put through that satisfies keeping a soft Irish border to both the mainland and EIRE, taking the UK out of the customs union and curtailing free movement; and that's only looking at the blockers on our side of the negotiation.
:shrug: Right, so before you explained why leaving without any prior planning could cause a recession - which is a fair enough but an improbable scenario. But simply saying upholding the result is likely to cause a recession doesn't make it true. Operating under WTO rules does not make a recession likely. Since it's in neither side's interest to cause disruption to trade I anticipate some last minute arrangement being made to keep things going. How exactly that will happen is down to politics.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:40 am

It does make a recession likely. There will be a significant change to business costs that have been unplanned, a significant increase in tariffs from overseas trade (e.g. 10% on all car parts/cars for sale; 35% for agriculture) that will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the economy and people's lives. Inflation will likely increase as a result, and inflation is one of the biggest causes of recession.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:10 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:40 am
It does make a recession likely. There will be a significant change to business costs that have been unplanned, a significant increase in tariffs from overseas trade (e.g. 10% on all car parts/cars for sale; 35% for agriculture) that will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the economy and people's lives. Inflation will likely increase as a result, and inflation is one of the biggest causes of recession.
It's far too simplistic to say, we'll suddenly have tariffs that we didn't have before, therefore inflation and recession. What's going to be the effect on tax revenue, what's going to be the effect on exchange rates, what's going to be the effect on imports that currently have EU tariffs on them, what's going to be the effect on exports?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/who ... f-the-wto/

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:05 pm

It's not too simplistic to say we'll have tariffs we didn't have before... Because that's exactly what will happen if we exit the EU without a trade deal. :shrug:

"While tariffs on some EU goods — agricultural goods and automobiles in particular — would be higher than 3 per cent, economic gains secured from an independent trade policy and a more pro-competitive environment should compensate UK consumers."

Should. If we get to secure any deals with anyone else, which we aren't allowed to negotiate until we have left. So there will definitely be a period when those increases hurt the UK. The question is, how long and how much damage will they cause? Working in the motor finance industry there's a pretty bleak outlook.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:18 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:05 pm
It's not too simplistic to say we'll have tariffs we didn't have before... Because that's exactly what will happen if we exit the EU without a trade deal. :shrug:

"While tariffs on some EU goods — agricultural goods and automobiles in particular — would be higher than 3 per cent, economic gains secured from an independent trade policy and a more pro-competitive environment should compensate UK consumers."

Should. If we get to secure any deals with anyone else, which we aren't allowed to negotiate until we have left. So there will definitely be a period when those increases hurt the UK. The question is, how long and how much damage will they cause? Working in the motor finance industry there's a pretty bleak outlook.
Yes. Should. You can't claim a recession "is likely" then complain that the counterpoint isn't a 100% certainty? :roll: If the average export to the EU will cost 3% more because of tariffs, BUT the value of the pound against the Euro falls by more than 3% (ie just a few cents), then our exports to the EU will actually become cheaper overall. A fall in the pound will make our exports cheaper to the regions we're already operating with on the WTO terms. And if lower prices means more sales and a rise in exports, that will be good for the economy. On the import side, you seem to be assuming we have to adopt the same schedule of tariffs that the EU will impose on us. My understanding is we can unilaterally set whatever we want, so long as we apply the same tariffs across the board. Which leaves it in the hands of the government to manage, and means they can make imports cheaper or more costly depending on what seems the most advantageous.

It may not work out that way, nothing is certain. But I despair at the way there's been a narrative of impending economic disaster that's seemingly accepted without scrutiny - even as it's unravelling as time passes. My main concern is that our politicians are so narrow-sighted when it comes to the EU that we're going to have some sort of quasi-Brexit that forfeits the opportunities from leaving and loses the advantages of remaining.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:40 pm

The problen is there will be a delay before the should can be activated. I think its a bigger unknown than what will happen in the event of a no deal exit.

A weakened pound impacts our imports and contributes to inflation, further increasing the chances of recession, especially in real terms for the consumer.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:54 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:40 pm

A weakened pound impacts our imports and contributes to inflation, further increasing the chances of recession, especially in real terms for the consumer.
But can be countered by reducing the tariffs we apply to imports, as I've already said. Or we end up selling more domestic products which become more competitively priced. You're just looking at one side of the equation without considering what would happen to balance out the effect. Which is exactly what was wrong with all the "project fear" economic predictions.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:50 pm

But aren't allowed to do that under WTO rules until an agreement is made between both parties involved. Which we aren't allowed to negotiate until we leave the EU. :shrug:

And by reducing tariffs on imports you fail to counter the increase in tariffs on exports anyway. So your currency is devalued, cost of living increases due to inflation whilst the economy fails to grow. After which our credit rating will be reduced compounding matters further. All of this without even considering the impact on the ftse250 which is comprised of UK based companies which hurt when the pound weakens. So that's going to hurt everyone's pensions.

But don't worry, it's all hypothetical..... :? :shrug:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:20 pm

Pretty extraordinary ruling by Bercow today, which if used to set precedent will have a long reaching impact on all future governments, let alone the current discussions on leaving the EU
...

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:06 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:50 pm
But aren't allowed to do that under WTO rules until an agreement is made between both parties involved. Which we aren't allowed to negotiate until we leave the EU. :shrug:

And by reducing tariffs on imports you fail to counter the increase in tariffs on exports anyway. So your currency is devalued, cost of living increases due to inflation whilst the economy fails to grow. After which our credit rating will be reduced compounding matters further. All of this without even considering the impact on the ftse250 which is comprised of UK based companies which hurt when the pound weakens. So that's going to hurt everyone's pensions.

But don't worry, it's all hypothetical..... :? :shrug:
Say what? I think you're misinformed, it doesn't even make sense to require a mutual agreement before we set out our schedule of tariffs under WTO rules, who do you think we're agreeing with, the whole world? :? And we can plan and release that schedule whenever we want, we just can't apply it until we leave. I think you're getting confused with negotiating free trade deals with specific nations. Which the EU officially prevent us from discussing, although why we pay attention is anyone's guess and I'd be surprised if there's been no informal arrangements made.

Your hypothetical analysis doesn't follow, you just seem to be rattling off phrases without any explanation. A reduction of tariffs on essential imports would help to avoid inflation caused by your currency falling and making imports more costly. A falling currency boosts exports, as I've already shown only a small fall in value would cancel out the average tariff increase. On domestic products, exchange rates and tariffs have no impact. And with the potential to increase tariffs on non-essential imports (or just the fact that a falling pound would make them more expensive), there's a possibility of further boosting sales of domestic products. So there's two potential avenues for improved growth.

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