Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

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Rover the Top
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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Rover the Top » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:22 pm

I'm failing to understand why you're trying to disprove Eth's comment that it's impossible to know what the outcome would have been by pointing out that it's possible that it could have been the same. That only backs him up. :lol: The only way your comments make sense is if you've misread his initial post as though he was saying it was impossible for the outcome to be the same, rather than impossible to know if the outcome would be the same.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:36 am

What? No you've really lost me.

I'm not saying it's impossible to know what the outcome of a poll is; I'm saying it's impossible to know what the outcome of a poll might have been if the circumstances were different; but that applies to all polls and so I don't necessarily think it's a valid dispute with the Crimean poll. :shrug:

If the troops weren't there, the result might be different; but the result might be different if the Crimean people didn't want to join Russia. If there was a higher percentage of Tatars there, the result might be different. If dogs could vote the result might be different.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Ethiaa » Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:47 am

Dogs voting is the new free and fair election. You should go get a job with the Russian Embassy ;)

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:13 am

mrblackbat wrote: I'm saying it's impossible to know what the outcome of a poll might have been if the circumstances were different;
That's the same as what ethiaa said, to which you responded "that's not necessarily true"! :lol: Get off the defensive for a moment and reread what's been said - you've started arguing with someone making the same point as you. :lol: That's all I was trying to point out, to keep the discussion coherent.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:53 am

Rover the Top wrote:
mrblackbat wrote: I'm saying it's impossible to know what the outcome of a poll might have been if the circumstances were different;
That's the same as what ethiaa said, to which you responded "that's not necessarily true"! :lol: Get off the defensive for a moment and reread what's been said - you've started arguing with someone making the same point as you. :lol: That's all I was trying to point out, to keep the discussion coherent.
No it's not what he said.

He said:-
Ethiaa wrote:It's impossible to know if a majority of people want to be part of Russia when a vote is taken with the armed forces of that country on the streets and the poll has options slanted in one direction.
The outcome of the poll shows that the majority of people want to be a part of Russia under the circumstances of the vote taken. His statement is quite different from the point that I'm trying to make. We're the ones carrying out the speculation that the presence of the troops affected the result, and if they hadn't been there the outcome would be different.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Ethiaa » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:59 am

mrblackbat wrote:We're the ones carrying out the speculation that the presence of the troops affected the result, and if they hadn't been there the outcome would be different.
Nobody suggested the outcome would be different. I'm pointing out that you can't possibly think that a vote under armed occupation by a nation who is the subject of the vote can be considered free or fair as there is the potential for a confound. Which as I said previously, is just bloody obvious.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:07 am

Ethiaa wrote:
mrblackbat wrote:We're the ones carrying out the speculation that the presence of the troops affected the result, and if they hadn't been there the outcome would be different.
Nobody suggested the outcome would be different. I'm pointing out that you can't possibly think that a vote under armed occupation by a nation who is the subject of the vote can be considered free or fair as there is the potential for a confound. Which as I said previously, is just bloody obvious.
Yep. Or in other words, it's impossible to know what the outcome of a poll might have been if the circumstances were different. Wait, someone else might have said that too... :lol:

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Ethiaa » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:35 am

That's not necessarily true. ;)

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:35 am

Rover the Top wrote:
Ethiaa wrote:
mrblackbat wrote:We're the ones carrying out the speculation that the presence of the troops affected the result, and if they hadn't been there the outcome would be different.
Nobody suggested the outcome would be different. I'm pointing out that you can't possibly think that a vote under armed occupation by a nation who is the subject of the vote can be considered free or fair as there is the potential for a confound. Which as I said previously, is just bloody obvious.
Yep. Or in other words, it's impossible to know what the outcome of a poll might have been if the circumstances were different. Wait, someone else might have said that too... :lol:
I really don't think you've grasped my point, still.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:39 am

Ethiaa wrote:
mrblackbat wrote:We're the ones carrying out the speculation that the presence of the troops affected the result, and if they hadn't been there the outcome would be different.
Nobody suggested the outcome would be different. I'm pointing out that you can't possibly think that a vote under armed occupation by a nation who is the subject of the vote can be considered free or fair as there is the potential for a confound. Which as I said previously, is just bloody obvious.
But that's not what you said:-
Ethiaa wrote:It's impossible to know if a majority of people want to be part of Russia when a vote is taken with the armed forces of that country on the streets and the poll has options slanted in one direction.
Free and fair are not mentioned. It's perfectly possible that the majority of people there want to be a part of Russia; and despite the slant on the vote, the number of people that voted and the vote that cast would suggest that they do. Especially when combined with the images of the polling stations. You're speculating that the military influence has affected the vote, but that is your speculation. It's going to have had an effect, but how much I don't know. I actually think there's a high likelihood that if a revote was taken under different circumstances, the majority would vote to join Russia.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Ethiaa » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:44 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Ethiaa wrote:
mrblackbat wrote:We're the ones carrying out the speculation that the presence of the troops affected the result, and if they hadn't been there the outcome would be different.
Nobody suggested the outcome would be different. I'm pointing out that you can't possibly think that a vote under armed occupation by a nation who is the subject of the vote can be considered free or fair as there is the potential for a confound. Which as I said previously, is just bloody obvious.
But that's not what you said:-
Ethiaa wrote:It's impossible to know if a majority of people want to be part of Russia when a vote is taken with the armed forces of that country on the streets and the poll has options slanted in one direction.
Free and fair are not mentioned. It's perfectly possible that the majority of people there want to be a part of Russia; and despite the slant on the vote, the number of people that voted and the vote that cast would suggest that they do. Especially when combined with the images of the polling stations. You're speculating that the military influence has affected the vote, but that is your speculation. It's going to have had an effect, but how much I don't know. I actually think there's a high likelihood that if a revote was taken under different circumstances, the majority would vote to join Russia.
You're just being silly mate. Obviously if a vote is not free and fair then you can't know if the outcome is correct. I am NOT speculating that the military occupation has had an effect, I'm saying you can't know what effect it has had. That is why I keep using the word confound. I think RTT is right - you appear to be arguing about something I'm not saying. Have fun!

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:47 am

No that's not true. The vote might not be fair, but the outcome may be correct if the majority of people side with the manner in which the vote is skewed.

By your argument, no vote can be found to be correct because there will always be circumstances involved. If those circumstances are different, the vote will be different, and we won't know the affect that those circumstances had.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:02 am

mrblackbat wrote: I really don't think you've grasped my point, still.
Oh, I've grasped your point. You're saying the result is what it is and no one knows if it would be the same or different under any other circumstances. The issue is, that only backs up the point ethiaa was making. To disprove him, you'd have to show that it was possible to say what the result would be in a free and fair election, with no military presence and no loaded question. Yet (quite rightly) you're arguing that's not possible. There's nothing wrong with the points you're making, they just don't make sense as an argument against ethiaa's point.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:26 am

Which is possible, because you could hold another election under different circumstances and if the same outcome occurred you'd know the outcome was correct. In this case, whilst the margin wouldn't be as large, I suspect the same result would come out.

I think you're missing that I wasn't arguing that you can't know that the outcome was correct. I was putting forward an exagerrated example that if you believe it's not possible to know the outcome of a poll due to circumstance, then the circumstance doesn't matter and it must apply to all polls. For instance, you can't know the outcome was correct because the sky was blue or some other ridiculous notion.

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Re: Ukraine/Crimea/Russia

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:03 pm

No matter how many times you go round and round making the same point, it's still not going to make it untrue that you can't know what the majority of Crimeans really want based on a vote that was possibly confounded. You can't know how many Crimeans would want to join Russia if the sky was green either. Or if dogs could vote. Your exaggerations only serve to show that what ethiaa said was in fact correct. :shrug:

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