Brexit....or in.

There must be more to life than football?

Which way would you vote

Remain and voted remain the first time
7
70%
Leave and voted leave the first time
2
20%
Remain but voted leave the first time
0
No votes
Leave but voted remain the first time
1
10%
Can't be arsed
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 10

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Rover the Top
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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:59 am

Hudson wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:21 am
You guys are worse than Corbyn and May :lol:
At least we talk to each other.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:04 pm

Lets continue to be super condescending without paying attention to what oneself has said....

Right: you charge import tariffs to make your domestic products attractive to local buyers. Other countries charge us export tariffs, to try and make our products less attractive. If you don't charge import tariffs, our local produce is less competetive, or even not competetive at all. So nobody buys it here. And nobody buys it abroad either because its not competetive there either. People in the industry lose their jobs, the companies pay less tax cause they're making less profit; and probably ultimately go out of business.

It's hardly a positive effect?

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:29 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:04 pm
Lets continue to be super condescending without paying attention to what oneself has said....
Talking about yourself?

I'll break your point down into two parts - from an export point of view, the increase in tariffs is likely to be cancelled out by the anticipated fall in the pound. I've made this point several times and you keep avoiding it - I don't know if that's because you're ignoring something that deflates your argument or because you just don't understand. Yes, if the pound strengthened then exports would become uncompetitive, but that isn't what's expected to happen and we were talking about what was "likely".

From an import point of view, your complaint was that essential imports would become too expensive with tariffs. You're now saying without those tariffs, domestic sales would suffer. But you're actually mixing up two issues - if you're reliant on imports it's because your domestic market can't provide those products. If you can provide a product domestically, you don't need to make imports more affordable. So you apply tariffs to the products you can provide domestically, not on the ones you need to import. Again, I made this point before and you've either missed, ignored or not understood it.

I'm finding remain voters are very hung up on what doors are closing and don't see what doors will open instead. Even if we say your example is true for the widget industry, what you don't seem to be considering is that if the nation switches from producing widgets to importing widgets, that creates a new industry to import the widgets, new jobs, fresh tax sources, etc. The UK has been moving away from manufacturing for decades, and yet we continue to create jobs and grow our economy. And that's been the case whilst we've been in the EU. I mean, really, if you're in favour of protecting local industries, being part of a free trade zone with no control over tariffs is the exact opposite of what you should have voted for.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:02 pm

You're wrong here. We export more of our agricultural produce than import. A fall in the pound only benefits exports, and hurts buying power on imports. Seems to me, not charging tariffs on imports will be countered by lower buying power due to the fall in the pound.... And buying power across the entire UK drops due to a weakened pound, whilst remaining the same in this countrym it's ecavtly why the FTSE250 plummets when the pound drops whilst the FTSE100 improves; because FTSE100 companies have the majority of their interest abroad.

Anyway bored of your black and white responses and usual "never possibly wrong" condescending attitude.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:06 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:02 pm
You're wrong here. We export more of our agricultural produce than import. A fall in the pound only benefits exports, and hurts buying power on imports. Seems to me, not charging tariffs on imports will be countered by lower buying power due to the fall in the pound.... And buying power across the entire UK drops due to a weakened pound, whilst remaining the same in this countrym it's ecavtly why the FTSE250 plummets when the pound drops whilst the FTSE100 improves; because FTSE100 companies have the majority of their interest abroad.

Anyway bored of your black and white responses and usual "never possibly wrong" condescending attitude.
I'm wrong on what exactly? Yes, a fall in the pound benefits exports. But that's the point I was making above, the disadvantage of having tariffs on exports is likely to be cancelled out by a fall in the exchange rate. Therefore, our exports shouldn't become less competitive, contrary to what you were claiming. And yes, the adverse effect of a falling pound is that imports become more expensive - but that's why you don't charge tariffs, or turn to your domestic market to provide what's needed.

I'm not giving black and white answers, I'm giving a more holistic view of the economy instead of trying to prove it will fail by just focussing on one little bit. The whole point is, it isn't a black and white case of remain=economic growth/leave=recession. In both cases, the economy should continue to grow, with an ever-present risk of recession if badly managed.

I don't know why you need to keep getting personal. :shrug:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:42 pm

" if you're reliant on imports it's because your domestic market can't provide those products. "

Totally not true.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:56 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:42 pm
" if you're reliant on imports it's because your domestic market can't provide those products. "

Totally not true.
Well, that's just applying the definition of "reliant", but I'll give an example to clarify. Let's take one of my favourite things: wine. There is a small wine industry in the UK, but it could in no way cope with meeting the demand on the market for wine. So we are reliant on importing wine from abroad. And if, post-Brexit, we started putting sky-high tariffs on wine from France, Spain, Germany, etc, rather than encouraging all wine drinkers to buy British, you'd just end up making wine more expensive for consumers, because supply from the British market can't meet demand. So the rational thing to do would not be to apply tariffs to wine. It's just the concept of substitute goods, standard economic theory, so I'm not sure why you're saying it's not true?

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:48 am

That's a surprise. An example that backs up your argument, but is completely irrelevant in the wider argument.

There are plenty of products that we import because it's cheaper for consumers to but those products due to our trade agreementa, whilst we produce plenty ourselves and export because it's more profitable to do so because of our trade agreements. Lamb, beef and pork all being good examples. Especially when you consider the byproducts that are included within those markets.

Like I said, seeing as you have everything figured out so well, how come you aren't up there pushing those decisions through? :yeahright:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:00 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:48 am
That's a surprise. An example that backs up your argument, but is completely irrelevant in the argument.

There are plenty of products that we import because it's cheaper for consumers to but those products due to our trade agreementa, whilst we produce plenty ourselves and export because it's more profitable to do so because of our trade agreements. Lamb, beef and pork all being good examples. Especially when you consider the byproducts that are included with those markets.
So... if you can't supply substitute goods for those products at an affordable price, you are reliant on those imports. Entirely consistent with what I've been saying. :hyper: Your argument above was that without tariffs, our domestic products would become less competitve. But now you're saying we import rather than buy the domestic products anyway because they're already cheaper. So there's no loss in market share from not applying tariffs because there wasn't that market share in the first place. You could have a different approach where you apply tariffs to make domestic products more competitive particularly where demand is inelastic, hence increasing sales of the domestic products. But that's a case for leaving the EU, we can't offer that protectionism as things stand now. If your objective is to maintain the level of imports you already have, as close to the cost that you have, then you don't increase tariffs on them.

An example that backs up my argument is irrelevant to the argument? That comment sums up your attitude here. :lol:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:56 pm

It's irrelevant to the wider argument. Wine exports won't have much impact on the market and as a premium good aren't going to affect the ordinary public much.

Whereas the reduction in value of meat products will. In the UK the reduction in price from a weakened pound doesn't affect local buying power. Imports will be more expensive due to the weakened pound so we can reduce tariffs to try and counter balance that.... Except the meat we already import is already mostly tariff free from the EU. So meat gets more expensive locally either way. From an export marjet perspective, we'll now have to operate under WTO tariffs as opposed to those set under the EU (which includes trade to nations outside the EU who have negotiated a trade agreement with the EU.) All of a sudden our products will be less competetive in those countries due to an increase in tariffs, in the EU by 35%. If you're legitimately suggesting you want to weaken the pound by 35%, to counter balance the increase in tariff on export to those countries (who are the people we currently supply to), then the reduction in spending power to the UK public becomes even greater.

And before you say "just supply to someone else", it's rather obviously not that simply.....

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am

You're now just being disingenuous. In the wider picture, tariffs are not 35%, what happens to the economy as a whole is not dictated by how just one market is managed. Maybe meat exports will fall, but over the whole economy the trend should be lower cost exports and hence a greater demand for them. You won't accept a specific example to clarify a generalised comment from me, yet you're basing your own argument on the most extreme outlier. It's obvious you're not interested in any opinion other than you're own, you just want to dismiss anyone who disagrees with you as "wrong" and try to make out they don't have a right to an opinion. Go find a nice echo chamber to discuss how half empty your glass is. The way things are shaping up, we're probably not going to leave the EU anyway, so we can discuss how civil unrest over democracy falling will cause a recession.. :yeahright:

EDIT: I should probably know by now not to take any facts you give for granted, either: Agricultural exports in 2017 were £22bn, imports were £46.2bn. We produced 901 thousand tonnes of cattle/calf meat, of which we exported 134 thousand tonnes (circa 15% of production) and imported a further 345 thousand tonnes. Domestic production making up 81% of domestic supply. For pig meat, 868 thousand tonnes were produced, 249 thousand tonnes exported (circa 29%) and imported 802 thousand tonnes meaning domestic production is just 61% of supply. And for lamb, 307 thousand tonnes produced, 104 thousand tonnes exported (circa 34%) and 101 thousand tonnes imported (80% from outside the EU). Domestic production just about exceeds supply. So we don't export more than we import as you claimed. :roll:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 8sep18.pdf

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Gibbon » Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:33 pm

Sorry to butt in. This...
this...
then this...
🤔

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:48 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am
You're now just being disingenuous. In the wider picture, tariffs are not 35%, what happens to the economy as a whole is not dictated by how just one market is managed. Maybe meat exports will fall, but over the whole economy the trend should be lower cost exports and hence a greater demand for them. You won't accept a specific example to clarify a generalised comment from me, yet you're basing your own argument on the most extreme outlier. It's obvious you're not interested in any opinion other than you're own, you just want to dismiss anyone who disagrees with you as "wrong" and try to make out they don't have a right to an opinion. Go find a nice echo chamber to discuss how half empty your glass is. The way things are shaping up, we're probably not going to leave the EU anyway, so we can discuss how civil unrest over democracy falling will cause a recession.. :yeahright:

EDIT: I should probably know by now not to take any facts you give for granted, either: Agricultural exports in 2017 were £22bn, imports were £46.2bn. We produced 901 thousand tonnes of cattle/calf meat, of which we exported 134 thousand tonnes (circa 15% of production) and imported a further 345 thousand tonnes. Domestic production making up 81% of domestic supply. For pig meat, 868 thousand tonnes were produced, 249 thousand tonnes exported (circa 29%) and imported 802 thousand tonnes meaning domestic production is just 61% of supply. And for lamb, 307 thousand tonnes produced, 104 thousand tonnes exported (circa 34%) and 101 thousand tonnes imported (80% from outside the EU). Domestic production just about exceeds supply. So we don't export more than we import as you claimed. :roll:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 8sep18.pdf
I was simply going off the document outlinled earlier.

But you're still not getting that the imports and exports outside the EU will still change in tariffs: the agreements we operate under are the EUs. So for instance, if you look at lamb, we import a load from New Zealand who have a free trade agreement with the EU. So there's no gain in reducing the tariff to 0 has no effect. New Zealand lamb is much cheaper than UK lamb, because there's a free trade agreement.

Disingenuous? You mean providing a valid counter argument?

I think your echo chamber of one seems to be far bigger than mine.....

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:09 pm

Gibbon wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:33 pm
Sorry to butt in. This...
this...
then this...
🤔
You're forgetting: it's ok because we'll just devalue the pound..... Which obviously won't cause inflation.....
Last edited by mrblackbat on Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Gibbon » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:10 pm

Doesn’t having a smaller echo chamber than an echo chamber of one mean NO-ONE agrees with you? ;)

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