Brexit....or in.

There must be more to life than football?

Which way would you vote

Remain and voted remain the first time
7
70%
Leave and voted leave the first time
2
20%
Remain but voted leave the first time
0
No votes
Leave but voted remain the first time
1
10%
Can't be arsed
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 10

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mrblackbat
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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:11 pm

Gibbon wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:10 pm
Doesn’t having a smaller echo chamber than an echo chamber of one mean NO-ONE agrees with you? ;)
You're misunderstanding. It's a really big echo chamber, with one voice in it, just bouncing back on itself. Like a delay set to max.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Gibbon » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:46 am

:lol:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:31 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:48 pm

I think your echo chamber of one seems to be far bigger than mine.....
Echo chamber of one, that's a good one. :lol: If only your economic arguments were anywhere near the same standard...

Somehow I knew that despite being given actual figures that show you're talking rubbish, you'd still maintain you were making a "valid" point. Oh well... :D

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:04 am

Gibbon wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:33 pm
Sorry to butt in. This...
this...
then this...
🤔
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/0 ... r-britain/

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:13 am

And you still seem to be failing to acknowledge that it's not just trade with the EU that's the problem, it's trade with any country that has a trade agreement with the EU.

Nor that the mechanisms and infrastructure isn't in place to support a hard border with the EU.

Your solution is that we can reduce tariffs (and therefore for everyone) in order to ensure that imports aren't anymore expensive than they currently are after a devaluation of the pound, ignoring that most of our imports are already carried out under free trade agreements through the EU. So, we wouldn't be able to reduce them. They're already reduced.

So: looking back at your figures:

Beef imports:- £46.2bn at £133.9 million per thousand tonnes.
Beef exports:- £22bn at £164.2 million per thousand tonnes.

British produced beef is 22% more expensive than imports. Hence why we import, and hence why exports are hugely important to us. A devalued pound simply makes exports more expensive, whilst the costs of producing beef locally are unlikely to change. Local meat, of which there isn't quite enough anyway, will get more expensive locally, and export tariffs will make it less attractive for overseas buyers. Given that the tariffs for imports are already under free trade agreements under the EU (i.e. with any country that has a trade agreement with the EU), we simply lose out. Oh, and people go hungry.

I can do the same with the rest if you like?

:shrug:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:26 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:13 am
And you still seem to be failing to acknowledge that it's not just trade with the EU that's the problem, it's trade with any country that has a trade agreement with the EU.

Nor that the mechanisms and infrastructure isn't in place to support a hard border with the EU.

Your solution is that we can reduce tariffs (and therefore for everyone) in order to ensure that imports aren't anymore expensive than they currently are after a devaluation of the pound, ignoring that most of our imports are already carried out under free trade agreements through the EU. So, we wouldn't be able to reduce them. They're already reduced.

So: looking back at your figures:

Beef imports:- £46.2bn at £133.9 million per thousand tonnes.
Beef exports:- £22bn at £164.2 million per thousand tonnes.

British produced beef is 22% more expensive than imports. Hence why we import, and hence why exports are hugely important to us. A devalued pound simply makes exports more expensive, whilst the costs of producing beef locally are unlikely to change. Local meat, of which there isn't quite enough anyway, will get more expensive locally, and export tariffs will make it less attractive for overseas buyers. Given that the tariffs for imports are already under free trade agreements under the EU (i.e. with any country that has a trade agreement with the EU), we simply lose out. Oh, and people go hungry.

I can do the same with the rest if you like?

:shrug:
You keep wittering on about me not acknowledging something I pointed out in the first place. My solution is multi-faceted, there isn't the one-size-fits-all approach you seem to want to get bogged down with. Some products we need to import, we cannot meet demand from our domestic market alone. Some we can cover supply from our own domestic market. Some will have high tariffs to export, some will be negligible. Depending on the details of each market, we could be better having high tariffs for importing some products, we could be better having low or no tariffs on others. The sheer number of variables makes it uncertain how everything will pan out, and I don't have any qualms with anyone who doesn't want change. But that shouldn't be confused with meaning a recession is likely.

And you're still misreading things, you've taken total exports and imports in agriculture as just being for beef. Your butcher's ripping you off if you think £134/kg for beef seems reasonable... ;) Beef imports were £1,068m, exports were £409m. So £3.10m per thousand tonnes to import versus £3.05m per thousand tonnes to export. So marginally cheaper rather than 22% more expensive... For the lamb market, you've got £369m imported at £3.65m per thousand tonnes, £384m exported at £3.69m/1000 tonnes. If you did create a situation where instead of trading abroad, we became 100% self-sufficient, then a third of the market would be priced at about 1% more. Interestingly, for the wine market you deemed irrelevant, imports totalled £3,217m and exports were £561m.

But what do I know, I don't work for the Treasury. :? :lol:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:52 pm

Apologies; you're right, the way you'd set your post seemed to sugges that was the totals for that product, not for total agriculture.

You've totally misunderstood why I've suggested that wine is unimportant for comparison purposes. The vast majority of wine imported is extremely cheap, and the cost to the consumer is through local taxation. For a £5 bottle to the consumer, excise is £2.17, VAT is 83p. There simply is no English wine produced at that cost.

Plus, people don't starve if they don't drink wine....

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:24 pm

Agricultural exports in 2017 were £22bn, imports were £46.2bn.
Not sure how I'd reword that sentence to make it clearer I meant agricultural exports rather than just beef, but apology accepted. :)

Some other interesting tidbits from that report - pigmeat prices rocketed up by 21% in 2017, with demand seemingly inelastic. And 39% of sheep production in the EU is from the UK, which raises the question where would they get their lamb from if they suddenly put high tariffs on our exports?

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:52 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:52 pm
There simply is no English wine produced at that cost.

Yep, that was pretty much the gist of my point. Therefore we have to import, and at £3bn a year coming in, that's some hefty demand for wine even if we won't starve without it. You think people will stop drinking wine when we leave the EU? I wasn't comparing to anything, I was giving an example of a product that was obvious we had to import to meet demand, and therefore would be foolish to start putting high tariffs on. :lol: Fresh fruit is another example. Pigmeat, apparently, the same although I wouldn't have known had I not decided to check up on your assertions.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:56 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:24 pm
Agricultural exports in 2017 were £22bn, imports were £46.2bn.
Not sure how I'd reword that sentence to make it clearer I meant agricultural exports rather than just beef, but apology accepted. :)

Some other interesting tidbits from that report - pigmeat prices rocketed up by 21% in 2017, with demand seemingly inelastic. And 39% of sheep production in the EU is from the UK, which raises the question where would they get their lamb from if they suddenly put high tariffs on our exports?
It's because I skim read amongst doing lots of other things. As I said; apologies for misreading.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:20 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:52 pm
mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:52 pm
There simply is no English wine produced at that cost.

Yep, that was pretty much the gist of my point. Therefore we have to import, and at £3bn a year coming in, that's some hefty demand for wine even if we won't starve without it. You think people will stop drinking wine when we leave the EU? I wasn't comparing to anything, I was giving an example of a product that was obvious we had to import to meet demand, and therefore would be foolish to start putting high tariffs on. :lol: Fresh fruit is another example. Pigmeat, apparently, the same although I wouldn't have known had I not decided to check up on your assertions.
But we already PUT a high tariff on wine, so there is room to reduce it, should we wish to, to negate the effects of devaluing the pound; or we can let consumers decide whether they want to cut back. Their choice; they don't intrinsically need it, hence how we can already charge a high tariff.

For food, seeing as the import tariffs are already low, or zero, we can't decrease them? So, those products would become more expensive after devaluing the pound.

Are you going to acknowledge that flaw in your argument yet?

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:21 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:24 pm
Agricultural exports in 2017 were £22bn, imports were £46.2bn.
Not sure how I'd reword that sentence to make it clearer I meant agricultural exports rather than just beef, but apology accepted. :)

Some other interesting tidbits from that report - pigmeat prices rocketed up by 21% in 2017, with demand seemingly inelastic. And 39% of sheep production in the EU is from the UK, which raises the question where would they get their lamb from if they suddenly put high tariffs on our exports?
New Zealand, whom they have just completed a trade agreement with.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:19 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47028748

"It expresses worry over tariffs, with only 10% of the UK's food imports currently subject to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules."

So as previously discussed, whilst we can retain having no tariffs on food imported to the UK, given that you want to devalue the pound to allow our exports to be profitable post an increase in tariffs under WTO rules, you won't be able to counter balance for imports. Food will inevitably becone more expensive; tgis will give rise to inflation, alongside the likelihood of inflation from devaluing the pound in any case.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:09 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:20 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:52 pm
mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:52 pm
There simply is no English wine produced at that cost.

Yep, that was pretty much the gist of my point. Therefore we have to import, and at £3bn a year coming in, that's some hefty demand for wine even if we won't starve without it. You think people will stop drinking wine when we leave the EU? I wasn't comparing to anything, I was giving an example of a product that was obvious we had to import to meet demand, and therefore would be foolish to start putting high tariffs on. :lol: Fresh fruit is another example. Pigmeat, apparently, the same although I wouldn't have known had I not decided to check up on your assertions.
But we already PUT a high tariff on wine, so there is room to reduce it, should we wish to, to negate the effects of devaluing the pound; or we can let consumers decide whether they want to cut back. Their choice; they don't intrinsically need it, hence how we can already charge a high tariff.

For food, seeing as the import tariffs are already low, or zero, we can't decrease them? So, those products would become more expensive after devaluing the pound.

Are you going to acknowledge that flaw in your argument yet?
There's no tariff on wine from the EU...

It's a few pages back so perhaps you've forgotten, but early on in this argument I pointed out that since the referendum vote, we'd experienced a devalued pound and inflation, and it didn't have the catastrophic consequences that arch-Remainers predicted. Your response was that that didn't matter, that was just "normal" economic activity, and the problem post-leaving would be we would suddenly have tariffs on all our imports. So now I've shown that we don't actually need to have tariffs if it's against our interests, you're now saying the conditions we've already been experiencing and haven't led to a recession will now lead to a recession? I present the last two years as evidence that won't be the case...

" Those "normal" changes are exactly what will be affected by exiting the EU. How they'll move and what the net effect will be is an unknown. Which makes it easy for anyone wanting to predict a bad outcome to make a model where everything is set to go to shit and then say we shouldn't leave. But there's certainly an element of "cry wolf" about it. There's more likely to be some counterbalancing reaction from market forces, the B of E or the Treasury that'll make it all feel like the Millenium Bug hysteria all over again to the average citizen. As you say, it all happens regardless of leaving a customs union."

There's no flaw in my argument, I covered this very point early on and you dismissed it. :doh:
mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:21 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:24 pm
Agricultural exports in 2017 were £22bn, imports were £46.2bn.
Not sure how I'd reword that sentence to make it clearer I meant agricultural exports rather than just beef, but apology accepted. :)

Some other interesting tidbits from that report - pigmeat prices rocketed up by 21% in 2017, with demand seemingly inelastic. And 39% of sheep production in the EU is from the UK, which raises the question where would they get their lamb from if they suddenly put high tariffs on our exports?
New Zealand, whom they have just completed a trade agreement with.
And you've checked up your facts this time to be sure they have the capacity to fill the hole?

https://www.agmrc.org/commodities-produ ... mb-profile

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-me ... new-record

http://beefandlambmatters.blogspot.com/ ... aland.html

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/ ... -potential

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:48 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:09 am
mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:20 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:52 pm
mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:52 pm
There simply is no English wine produced at that cost.

Yep, that was pretty much the gist of my point. Therefore we have to import, and at £3bn a year coming in, that's some hefty demand for wine even if we won't starve without it. You think people will stop drinking wine when we leave the EU? I wasn't comparing to anything, I was giving an example of a product that was obvious we had to import to meet demand, and therefore would be foolish to start putting high tariffs on. :lol: Fresh fruit is another example. Pigmeat, apparently, the same although I wouldn't have known had I not decided to check up on your assertions.
But we already PUT a high tariff on wine, so there is room to reduce it, should we wish to, to negate the effects of devaluing the pound; or we can let consumers decide whether they want to cut back. Their choice; they don't intrinsically need it, hence how we can already charge a high tariff.

For food, seeing as the import tariffs are already low, or zero, we can't decrease them? So, those products would become more expensive after devaluing the pound.

Are you going to acknowledge that flaw in your argument yet?
There's no tariff on wine from the EU...

It's a few pages back so perhaps you've forgotten, but early on in this argument I pointed out that since the referendum vote, we'd experienced a devalued pound and inflation, and it didn't have the catastrophic consequences that arch-Remainers predicted. Your response was that that didn't matter, that was just "normal" economic activity, and the problem post-leaving would be we would suddenly have tariffs on all our imports. So now I've shown that we don't actually need to have tariffs if it's against our interests, you're now saying the conditions we've already been experiencing and haven't led to a recession will now lead to a recession? I present the last two years as evidence that won't be the case...

" Those "normal" changes are exactly what will be affected by exiting the EU. How they'll move and what the net effect will be is an unknown. Which makes it easy for anyone wanting to predict a bad outcome to make a model where everything is set to go to shit and then say we shouldn't leave. But there's certainly an element of "cry wolf" about it. There's more likely to be some counterbalancing reaction from market forces, the B of E or the Treasury that'll make it all feel like the Millenium Bug hysteria all over again to the average citizen. As you say, it all happens regardless of leaving a customs union."

There's no flaw in my argument, I covered this very point early on and you dismissed it. :doh:
mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 4:21 pm
Rover the Top wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:24 pm
Agricultural exports in 2017 were £22bn, imports were £46.2bn.
Not sure how I'd reword that sentence to make it clearer I meant agricultural exports rather than just beef, but apology accepted. :)

Some other interesting tidbits from that report - pigmeat prices rocketed up by 21% in 2017, with demand seemingly inelastic. And 39% of sheep production in the EU is from the UK, which raises the question where would they get their lamb from if they suddenly put high tariffs on our exports?
New Zealand, whom they have just completed a trade agreement with.
And you've checked up your facts this time to be sure they have the capacity to fill the hole?

https://www.agmrc.org/commodities-produ ... mb-profile

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-me ... new-record

http://beefandlambmatters.blogspot.com/ ... aland.html

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/ ... -potential
We have import duty on wine, (aka tariff), imported from the EU. I can send you my bills from HMRC if you like?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... troduction

As for lamb, you have to remember to deduct our imports off the NZ lamb export to the EU figure.... ;)

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