Brexit....or in.

There must be more to life than football?

Which way would you vote

Remain and voted remain the first time
7
70%
Leave and voted leave the first time
2
20%
Remain but voted leave the first time
0
No votes
Leave but voted remain the first time
1
10%
Can't be arsed
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 10

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mrblackbat
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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:44 am

And on the previous indicators with no disasters; you're struggling with the difference between an indicator based on speculation and an actual devaluation of currency and actual increase in product cost: which also was my argument right at the start which you dismissed.

The reason why there was no widespread economic disaster on the annoucement of Brexit was because nothing had actually changed[. Whereas post a no deal Brexit there will be significant changes to the cost of products that people actually need, along with a reduction in the profitability of the export market. Both of which will have an actual impact on the cost of living, unlike a bunch of investors speculating on the future getting a bit nervous.

The sheer arrogance of stating that there is no flaw in your argument on such a speculative subject is hilarious. There are flaws in every argument. Except for "never wrong: it's written in the laws of physics" RTT....

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:54 am

Oh and lastly, in order to post a WTO schedule, there needs to be no objections from any other WTO member. This also takes three months minimum before they are approved in order to give all WTO members time to review them.

So, on March 29th, given the UK has no schedules because we trade under the EU banner, unnder WTO rules there could well simply be a stop on international trade for three months minimum whilst the trade schedules are established.

In order to prevent this and minimise any objections, the UK has already advised that we will mimic the existing EU schedules; these are what we have already committed to and so will be able to continue trading under those commitments. Changes... Less likely to occur. Of course, the schedules themselves don't include the free trade deals agreed within the EU, nor by the EU with external countries.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 4b0a11c990

So your "no flaw" argument simply isn't going to, possibly even can't, happen.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:33 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:48 pm



We have import duty on wine, (aka tariff), imported from the EU. I can send you my bills from HMRC if you like?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... troduction
Why have you linked to an article about Excise duty? That's an extra tax on all wine, nothing to do with imports. It even says so on that webpage. :? "Wine produced in the UK by a licensed producer of wine or imported (in strengths measured by reference to the following percentages of alcohol at a temperature of 20°C)." It only applies to imports from the EU if it appears you're importing to sell it on (ie bringing in more than 90 litres).
https://transporteca.co.uk/import-wine-from-france/
https://www.gov.uk/duty-free-goods/arri ... -countries

There are no tariffs added for the import of wine or any other product from the EU - it's fundamental to it being a free-trade zone. By all means, put these bills up. I'm curious to know what you're actually paying for - my best guesses are you're importing that much you have to pay excise duty, or alternatively, you're getting the bill for taxes due in the country of origin. Or you're actually importing from outside the EU through an EU country. There isn't a way in hell you're paying customs duty, it simply doesn't exist on trade within the EU. :-?

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:38 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:54 am
Oh and lastly, in order to post a WTO schedule, there needs to be no objections from any other WTO member. This also takes three months minimum before they are approved in order to give all WTO members time to review them.

So, on March 29th, given the UK has no schedules because we trade under the EU banner, unnder WTO rules there could well simply be a stop on international trade for three months minimum whilst the trade schedules are established.

In order to prevent this and minimise any objections, the UK has already advised that we will mimic the existing EU schedules; these are what we have already committed to and so will be able to continue trading under those commitments. Changes... Less likely to occur. Of course, the schedules themselves don't include the free trade deals agreed within the EU, nor by the EU with external countries.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 4b0a11c990

So your "no flaw" argument simply isn't going to, possibly even can't, happen.
I'll let this fella explain why that's (more) nonsense.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:32 am

I'm sorry? Have you actually read my post? It's not about objections to our WTO schedules, it's that they have already been set out as the same as the EU schedules..... so all those arguments you put forward about changing the tariffs to suit our needs aren't included in the schedules that we've already submitted.....

:doh:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:33 am

Rover the Top wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:33 am
mrblackbat wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:48 pm



We have import duty on wine, (aka tariff), imported from the EU. I can send you my bills from HMRC if you like?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... troduction
Why have you linked to an article about Excise duty? That's an extra tax on all wine, nothing to do with imports. It even says so on that webpage. :? "Wine produced in the UK by a licensed producer of wine or imported (in strengths measured by reference to the following percentages of alcohol at a temperature of 20°C)." It only applies to imports from the EU if it appears you're importing to sell it on (ie bringing in more than 90 litres).
https://transporteca.co.uk/import-wine-from-france/
https://www.gov.uk/duty-free-goods/arri ... -countries

There are no tariffs added for the import of wine or any other product from the EU - it's fundamental to it being a free-trade zone. By all means, put these bills up. I'm curious to know what you're actually paying for - my best guesses are you're importing that much you have to pay excise duty, or alternatively, you're getting the bill for taxes due in the country of origin. Or you're actually importing from outside the EU through an EU country. There isn't a way in hell you're paying customs duty, it simply doesn't exist on trade within the EU. :-?
Yes, cause all that really matters is people going across the channel and purchasing booze for their own consumption.....

They key part is:- "These goods may be either of UK origin, received following an intra EU movement or imported from outside the EU. The duty falls due at the time when the goods leave any duty suspension arrangements, that is when: they are released for consumption or otherwise made available for consumption (generally via the warehouse system) registered trader (REDS) or occasional importer receives them in the UK
a vendor makes a delivery under distance selling arrangements
missing consignments and other dutiable shortages are discovered
goods imported for personal use are then sold or put to commercial use"

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:43 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:44 am
And on the previous indicators with no disasters; you're struggling with the difference between an indicator based on speculation and an actual devaluation of currency and actual increase in product cost: which also was my argument right at the start which you dismissed.

The reason why there was no widespread economic disaster on the annoucement of Brexit was because nothing had actually changed[. Whereas post a no deal Brexit there will be significant changes to the cost of products that people actually need, along with a reduction in the profitability of the export market. Both of which will have an actual impact on the cost of living, unlike a bunch of investors speculating on the future getting a bit nervous.

The sheer arrogance of stating that there is no flaw in your argument on such a speculative subject is hilarious. There are flaws in every argument. Except for "never wrong: it's written in the laws of physics" RTT....
What "speculation" are you on about? There was an actual devaluation of Sterling after the Brexit vote, there was actual increases in costs. :? They didn't have a disastrous effect because they weren't and never will be events in isolation as you need to treat them for your argument to hold any water.

And of course you get personal again, you always like to play the man when you're struggling to play the ball. There's no arrogance in pointing out I'd already covered something you claimed was a specific flaw in my argument. :shrug: If you're so determined to find a hole in what I'm saying, you should stop skim-reading and try getting your basic facts right first.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh yes, and your simple lamb solution of New Zealand selling to the EU rather than the UK - the devil is in the detail. "The UK demands a larger volume of higher end cuts such as legs and chops, while UK exports consist mainly of carcases and a large proportion of low value cuts to emerging markets.

Most UK imports, particularly from New Zealand, are frozen, which is generally cheaper and aimed at providing a wider range of choice and availability for consumers. The vast majority of UK exports are chilled and includes product the UK market does not usually consume, highlighting the need to export. "

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:27 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:33 am


Yes, cause all that really matters is people going across the channel and purchasing booze for their own consumption.....

They key part is:- "These goods may be either of UK origin, received following an intra EU movement or imported from outside the EU. The duty falls due at the time when the goods leave any duty suspension arrangements, that is when: they are released for consumption or otherwise made available for consumption (generally via the warehouse system) registered trader (REDS) or occasional importer receives them in the UK
a vendor makes a delivery under distance selling arrangements
missing consignments and other dutiable shortages are discovered
goods imported for personal use are then sold or put to commercial use"
That.... says exactly what I said, just more comprehensively? :whoosh: It's excise duty, applies to certain goods produced here or imported from anywhere else in the world to sell, wine being one such good. It's not an import tariff. There are no import tariffs from the EU, it literally couldn't be a free-trade zone otherwise. I'm lost for words at the fact you don't understand that.

You could always make an argument for reducing excise duties, VAT and other taxes to give people more disposable income if you are concerned that prices have become too expensive. But I don't think that was the point you were hoping to make.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:44 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:32 am
I'm sorry? Have you actually read my post? It's not about objections to our WTO schedules, it's that they have already been set out as the same as the EU schedules..... so all those arguments you put forward about changing the tariffs to suit our needs aren't included in the schedules that we've already submitted.....

:doh:
So what if the draft is copied from the EU schedules? It can be changed, and whatever is in place when we leave the EU will come into immediate effect, whether certified or not.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... zation-wto

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:18 pm

Rover the Top wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:43 am
mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:44 am
And on the previous indicators with no disasters; you're struggling with the difference between an indicator based on speculation and an actual devaluation of currency and actual increase in product cost: which also was my argument right at the start which you dismissed.

The reason why there was no widespread economic disaster on the annoucement of Brexit was because nothing had actually changed[. Whereas post a no deal Brexit there will be significant changes to the cost of products that people actually need, along with a reduction in the profitability of the export market. Both of which will have an actual impact on the cost of living, unlike a bunch of investors speculating on the future getting a bit nervous.

The sheer arrogance of stating that there is no flaw in your argument on such a speculative subject is hilarious. There are flaws in every argument. Except for "never wrong: it's written in the laws of physics" RTT....
What "speculation" are you on about? There was an actual devaluation of Sterling after the Brexit vote, there was actual increases in costs. :? They didn't have a disastrous effect because they weren't and never will be events in isolation as you need to treat them for your argument to hold any water.

And of course you get personal again, you always like to play the man when you're struggling to play the ball. There's no arrogance in pointing out I'd already covered something you claimed was a specific flaw in my argument. :shrug: If you're so determined to find a hole in what I'm saying, you should stop skim-reading and try getting your basic facts right first.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh yes, and your simple lamb solution of New Zealand selling to the EU rather than the UK - the devil is in the detail. "The UK demands a larger volume of higher end cuts such as legs and chops, while UK exports consist mainly of carcases and a large proportion of low value cuts to emerging markets.

Most UK imports, particularly from New Zealand, are frozen, which is generally cheaper and aimed at providing a wider range of choice and availability for consumers. The vast majority of UK exports are chilled and includes product the UK market does not usually consume, highlighting the need to export. "
Speculation on the market. Have you never heard that term before? Wow.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation

I think, on that note, it's probably best to just cease talking....

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Rover the Top » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:07 pm

mrblackbat wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:18 pm

I think, on that note, it's probably best to just cease talking....
You should have done that several posts ago, instead of exposing just how little you actually know about all this. You've based your arguments on spurious unchecked claims that agricultural exports exceed imports, beef is exported at 22 % more than it's imported, we can't reduce tariffs without negotiation and so on. You're even adamant that we're somehow charging tariffs in a tariff-free zone. And despite making mistake after mistake, you persist with the personal jibes trying to belittle my level of knowledge. Does it ever cross your mind whilst you're desperately trying to prove me wrong that I might actually have a good idea what I'm talking about?

I expect no one else has bothered to follow this exchange - which is a shame because we've brought up some good stuff that highlights misconceptions about "no deal".

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:16 pm

Personal jibes? Where, exactly?

Oh wait, no I did point out, again, that you approach every argument, ever, with the firm belief that it's impossible for you to ever be wrong, ever.

Did I say ever enough? I'm not quite sure.

The only misconception would be around any doubt over what the trade tariffs will be on a no deal Brexit. We know what they'll be; the same as the EU, as outlined by our submitted draft WTO schedules. So, yes, in a no deal Brexit situation, it's going to hurt. Especually seeing as our draft schedules are specified using Euros, so devaluing the pound hurts us even more.

I think we've also established that you have no idea that currency and markets can be both positively and negatively affected by speculative trading; but that is a substantially different situation than when actual costs change.....

Oh and while we're at it, that you don't understand the difference between currency devaluation and currency depreciation.
Last edited by mrblackbat on Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by Gibbon » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:36 pm

Is this what poker night is like? :yeahright:

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:57 pm

No. We're both massively less dicks in person.

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Re: Brexit....or in.

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:08 pm

Meanwhile, and somewhat unsurprisingly, the EU declines to reopen talks after the UK has shown it's hand last night that we don't want to leave without a deal.

What a shock. Who knew our politicians were idiots?

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