You've made repeated comments about me, rather than the arguments I've made. You've made sarcastic remarks that why am I not running the treasury or something. I don't need you to validate my opinions, I had 2 (pro-EU) lecturers who seemed to think I was pretty good at debating this sort of stuff. But by all means, explain why you're more qualified to talk economics than me.mrblackbat wrote: ↑Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:16 pmPersonal jibes? Where, exactly?
Oh wait, no I did point out, again, that you approach every argument, ever, with the firm belief that it's impossible for you to ever be wrong, ever.
Did I say ever enough? I'm not quite sure.
The only misconception would be around any doubt over what the trade tariffs will be on a no deal Brexit. We know what they'll be; the same as the EU, as outlined by our submitted draft WTO schedules. So, yes, in a no deal Brexit situation, it's going to hurt. Especually seeing as our draft schedules are specified using Euros, so devaluing the pound hurts us even more.
I think we've also established that you have no idea that currency and markets can be both positively and negatively affected by speculative trading; but that is a substantially different situation than when actual costs change.....
Oh and while we're at it, that you don't understand the difference between currency devaluation and currency depreciation.
We've submitted draft schedules whilst working towards making a deal with the EU. If you've ever seen the list of commodity codes that are used, it's easy to see why they've just copied and pasted the existing schedules as a starting point. However, it would be negligent of the government to not revise our tariffs should we leave without a deal, for the reasons we've discussed at length. But obviously, they're not going to submit schedules based on a no deal situation when they're aiming for a different outcome.
I know about speculative trading - what I was querying was why you thought the pound wasn't actually weaker now compared to before the referendum. £1 bought about €1.30 back in 2016, now it's around €1.15. There's been a definite fall in the value of the pound that makes imports from the Eurozone more expensive, exports cheaper. That's the reality of the last couple of years. It's anticipated the pound will fall again when we leave based on the same mechanism that caused it to fall two years ago - the fact the reason for a lack of confidence in the pound is different (voting to leave v actually leaving) doesn't change the end result. If you really wanted to find the flaw in the argument, you should be pointing out that once there's some certainty about how we are leaving, that could instill some confidence in the pound and we won't see a fall. That would change the dynamics of our trade. Although I still don't think it would make a recession likely, it would just require a different response.
Currency devaluation/depreciation are interchangeable in every day use and context made it clear what I was talking about as the UK doesn't have a fixed exchange rate, but yes, technically I mean depreciation rather than devaluation. OH MY GOD YOU'VE GOT ME AT LAST, I GOT SOMETHING WRONG!!! OH NO, I'M MELTING!!!