Current Events/News

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mrblackbat
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Re: Current Events/News

Post by mrblackbat » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:03 pm

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ey-sacking

And here's why Corbyn and allies never managed to get away from the anti-semitic claims. Starmer deals firmly with a possible association and they all complain; clearly haven't really understood. To be honest, it makes me wonder why and how they're in politics.....

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by RofTheRovers » Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:40 pm

RoverthePennines wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:54 pm
mrblackbat wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:03 pm
Oh look, what a surprise.

It's a spark. It's the needle that broke the camels back. It's not really about one man, but hundreds and thousands that are subjected to daily oppression.

I wouldn't be surprised if I ran the numbers and found at you're far more likely to die at the hands of a police officer in the US if uou're black than of the virus that isn't really all that deadly.
To confirm your point Blackbat, I’ve read, though not yet made any attempt to verify, that Johns Hopkins have calculated the risk of dying in the US from Coronavirus to be 1:3000. This paper (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1821204116) would indicate that the mortality rate for black men shot by US police to be 1:1000
Since you appear to love stats so much. I'll await the postings regarding the link between single mothers and ethnicity and subsequently the black crime stats in particular black on black gun crime and stabbings.

Thanks.

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RoverthePennines
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Re: Current Events/News

Post by RoverthePennines » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:15 pm

What are you waiting for them for?

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mrblackbat
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Re: Current Events/News

Post by mrblackbat » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:22 pm

RofTheRovers wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:40 pm
RoverthePennines wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:54 pm
mrblackbat wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:03 pm
Oh look, what a surprise.

It's a spark. It's the needle that broke the camels back. It's not really about one man, but hundreds and thousands that are subjected to daily oppression.

I wouldn't be surprised if I ran the numbers and found at you're far more likely to die at the hands of a police officer in the US if uou're black than of the virus that isn't really all that deadly.
To confirm your point Blackbat, I’ve read, though not yet made any attempt to verify, that Johns Hopkins have calculated the risk of dying in the US from Coronavirus to be 1:3000. This paper (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1821204116) would indicate that the mortality rate for black men shot by US police to be 1:1000
Since you appear to love stats so much. I'll await the postings regarding the link between single mothers and ethnicity and subsequently the black crime stats in particular black on black gun crime and stabbings.

Thanks.
Congratulations on proving you're a moron. Perhaps you should also have a look at the correlation between poverty levels and race, too; and then the opportunities available to people who are born into poor socio economic conditions.

Black people are no more violent than any other people; however they have systematically been discriminated against to ensure its much harder for them to escape the social and economic conditions that result in a more violent environment.

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:33 am

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/i ... 382184.amp

What was the expected covid mortality rate sans lockdown again?

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Ethiaa
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Re: Current Events/News

Post by Ethiaa » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:51 am

mrblackbat wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:33 am
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/i ... 382184.amp

What was the expected covid mortality rate sans lockdown again?
The mortality rate might not have changed much... (number of people per x who die after being infected). You would assume that it would be increased due to the extra pressure on the health service but I don't think there are any estimated numbers out there.

An estimated half a million deaths due to the vast number of extra infections though. Which is more people than the number of British (soldiers and civilians) who died in WWII. It's important to retain some context to the numbers I think.

(Source: http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/lockdo ... 60.article and many others from that date)

There are, as you'd expect, lots of ways to interpret that data given the innumerable factors that impact on both spread and mortality rate, most of which we still don't know are happening or understand. There are also long term health impacts from both mild and severe infection that are only just starting to emerge and which we probably won't full understand for some time.

This is an interesting read if macabre and a little sickening.

https://voxeu.org/article/uk-lockdown-b ... t-benefits

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by mrblackbat » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:30 pm

The 470k figure for WW2 is direct casualties though; so the relatively low civilian number for the UK is primarily made up of those killed by ordnance during the blitz.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_W ... %20billion).

Which is the problem when accounting for deaths: how many people had their lives cut short by the consequences of WW2 in the UK? That's much harder to calculate, and is inevitably a much greater number than the 470k figure.

The big issue with the report that started lockdown was that it didn't take into account the crossover between those expected to die anyway: which is quite high given the mortality rate of over 70s naturally.

The impact of lockdown is still worsening; twice as many young people are now jobless, and the long term affects of that are yet to be seen. And remember: it was 500k if no behaviour change at all, the still as yet unpublished number, notably excluded from the original report, on the estimate if those in vulnerable categories only went into lockdown will be considerably less when you look at the other reductions that were being quoted. I still maintain that would have been the most sensible course overall.

That article is hugely flawed because its assuming the 500k deaths quoted were excess deaths, and they weren't, as admitted by Ferguson and his team; estimated as many as two thirds of the 500k were likely to die in the period anyway.
mrblackbat wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:33 pm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

""Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says.

Knowing exactly how many is impossible to tell at this stage.

Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds."

I've always felt that this was likely to be the case, and that the raw numbers reported were going to be vastly over inflated in terms of a net mortality rate. So, I maintain that the reaction has been an overreaction, and that the long term cost to life of the economic impacts will far outweigh those of coronavirus with the vulnerable only isolated.
So we went into lockdown to save 166k lives; in in doing so have likely caused 200k deaths: I'm going to assume that some of those people would also have died in any case as well, but still.

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by Ethiaa » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:32 am

It's actually directly comparable - we have no idea what the tail of that thing we are still in might be and no idea of the indirect deaths. Only the direct ones.

You're basically making one of those "but if" arguments linking multiple incredibly complex phenomena together into a causal chain for which evidence can never be produced. It can only ever be conjecture. Not much point in it.

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by mrblackbat » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:46 am

I'm saying that I think more of those indirect deaths are being caused by our response, Rob.

It's not really a what if. Economic ruin was always going to be a huge cause of strife: it was after the second World War.

The direct comparison between WW2 and Coronaviris is 45,318 multiplied by Ferguson's estimate that only 1/3 were "over and above" deaths: ~15k to WW2's 470k.

I mean, if we were doing this to eradicate malaria, and actual significant killer disease, that we already have working treatment for but don't give it away to Africa because of economic reasons, then cool: I'm all for that.

Coronavirus? Massively disproportionate response.

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by Dan » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:28 am

Back on lockdown then for those of you in Blackburn... no more meeting in your garden, although feel free to go to the pub as long as you promise not to interact with anyone... and you can probably be excused for not realising, with Hancock tweeting out the announcement late last night :roll:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53602362


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Re: Current Events/News

Post by Ethiaa » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:52 am

Peter Hitchens :lol:

Might as well link to Trump rambles. Spose it gives us all some insight into what rabid stupidity continues to exist.

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by Rover the Top » Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:09 pm

I guess if you judge all opinions by who gives them rather than their content, the underlying message therein ain't for you... :D

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by Ethiaa » Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:38 pm

Oh no, I read the rabid stupidity first, then wondered which moron had written it and looked to see - then it all became clear. I did wonder why it all felt like it had been lifted out of the Daily Mail. But perhaps I'm just protecting a cabal of deep state satanists and paedophiles and only a few enlightened know the truth. Must go, gotta install some more 5G masts.

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Re: Current Events/News

Post by mrblackbat » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:44 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54315320

Brady's amendment has the numbers, will it get selected though?

Eth, despite the leanings of that article, there are a huge amount of civil liberties being eroded during this period. As stated by Bercow in the above article, 50 laws with criminal penalties without any vote in Parliament. Whatever you think about politics, this crisis and so on, that is worrying.
Last edited by mrblackbat on Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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